McKinsey study on the declining power of broadcast TV ad dollars

One of the main challenges for media firms in the Creative Economy is market retention. "The media content provider resembles a hunter gatherer in that for the creator of the media you start from scratch and need to capture or kill your prey each time, if you wish to prosper," says William Drury, Senior Marketing Consultant formerly with IBM EMEA, "You are only as good as your last effort. Quality, measured as you wish, is primary."

A thousand options fragment the audience for mainstream broadcaster and advertiser alike. What this means for mainstream broadcasters is that marketing television shows that appeal to broad audiences has also becomes more expensive. One of the growing trends in prime time television today is how TV shows with a broad demographic are marketed more like films. "The Premier means everything, says Megan Wolpert, executive VP of Spyglass Television, "just like it does in the film and the music industry. Today, television is starting to put much more stake into the premier of a show. So where it use to be the box office weekend would make or break how many screens you stay in over the next couple weeks in order to see if you can make more money. Today the same phenomenon is happening with television."

What this means for advertisers is that they are paying more to reach those broad audiences, while their effect is less potent. Companies that continue to capitalize on customer relations and experiential marketing are the real winners in this scenario. Market retention is the key to deriving sustainability in the disposable and immediate age of rapid product turnover and new media. Brand awareness or identity alone are no longer enough.

Advertising Age - McKinsey Study Predicts Continuing Decline in TV Selling Power

Excerpt:

"Should everybody shift 30% of their dollars to the web?" asked Amy Guggenheim Shenkan, senior practice knowledge specialist in McKinsey's San Francisco office. "No. There wouldn't be room today if everybody wanted to shift online. Last year [online media] was $12.5 billion, by end of 2007 digital advertising will be $18 to $25 billion. ... So we're seeing a lot of growth, but if you want to match up share of attention and share of dollars it couldn't happen for that reason." The TV ad industry is a $68 billion one.